Our pro football spread and total picks for the week, graded against the closing betting line, with every win and loss kept on the record.
OUR RECORD every graded pick, wins and losses
Week 4 top picks
3-0-1
100.0% wins
Season top picks
11-3-2
78.6% wins
Season all spread picks
14-6-3
70.0% wins
Season total picks
11-24
31.4% wins
THIS WEEK'S TOP PICKS 4 picks · record 11-3-2 (78.6%) · 2026 top picks
Arizona @ New York (G)
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
New York (G) +2.5SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like New York (G) more than the betting line does; home field for New York (G).
Input quality (not a win chance)70
Dallas @ Houston
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Dallas +3SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Dallas more than the betting line does.
- Total pick
- Under 48.5 · L
Input quality (not a win chance)72
Los Angeles (C) @ Seattle
Sun Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET
Seattle -7SPREADPUSH
Our team ratings like Seattle more than the betting line does; Los Angeles (C) has more key players out; home field for Seattle.
Input quality (not a win chance)69
Detroit @ Carolina
Sun Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET
Carolina +4.5SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Carolina more than the betting line does; home field for Carolina.
- Total pick
- Under 52.5 · L
Input quality (not a win chance)72
TOP PROP BETS 5 props
Tyler Shough New Orleans
Atlanta @ New Orleans
Over 15.5 rushing yards
Big role in the offense.
Confidence64%
Juwan Johnson New Orleans
Atlanta @ New Orleans
Over 42.5 receiving yards
Big role in the offense; efficient with his touches.
Confidence63%
Noah Fant New Orleans
Atlanta @ New Orleans
Over 15.5 receiving yards
Our projection is above the line.
Confidence63%
Tyler Shough New Orleans
Atlanta @ New Orleans
Over 1.5 passing TDs
Big role in the offense; expected game flow helps; efficient with his touches.
Confidence60%
Alvin Kamara New Orleans
Atlanta @ New Orleans
Over 36.5 rushing yards
Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out.
Confidence63%
EVERY GAME 13 on the board · our pick for each
Thu Oct 1 · 8:15 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Pittsburgh
@
Cleveland
OUR PICKOver 38.5
TOTALWIN
Our scoring read for this matchup is above the betting total.
Input quality (not a win chance)70
TOP PICKSun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Arizona
@
New York (G)
OUR PICKNew York (G) +2.5
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like New York (G) more than the betting line does; home field for New York (G).
Input quality (not a win chance)70
TOP PICKSun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Dallas
@
Houston
OUR PICKDallas +3
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Dallas more than the betting line does.
- Total pick
- Under 48.5 · L
Input quality (not a win chance)72
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Green Bay
@
Tampa Bay
OUR PICKOver 38.5
TOTALLOSS
Our scoring read for this matchup is above the betting total.
Input quality (not a win chance)60
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Jacksonville
@
Cincinnati
OUR PICKUnder 51.5
TOTALWIN
Our scoring read for this matchup is below the betting total.
Input quality (not a win chance)73
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Los Angeles (R)
@
Philadelphia
OUR PICKOver 42.5
TOTALWIN
Our scoring read for this matchup is above the betting total; rain in the forecast.
Input quality (not a win chance)73
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
New England
@
Buffalo
OUR PICKUnder 49.5
TOTALLOSS
Our scoring read for this matchup is below the betting total.
Input quality (not a win chance)70
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Tennessee
@
Baltimore
OUR PICKTennessee +11.5
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Tennessee more than the betting line does.
Input quality (not a win chance)67
Sun Oct 4 · 4:05 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Miami
@
Minnesota
OUR PICKOver 38.5
TOTALLOSS
Our scoring read for this matchup is above the betting total.
Input quality (not a win chance)67
Sun Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Kansas City
@
Las Vegas
OUR PICKUnder 47.5
TOTALLOSS
Our scoring read for this matchup is below the betting total.
Input quality (not a win chance)71
TOP PICKSun Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Los Angeles (C)
@
Seattle
OUR PICKSeattle -7
SPREADPUSH
Our team ratings like Seattle more than the betting line does; Los Angeles (C) has more key players out; home field for Seattle.
Input quality (not a win chance)69
TOP PICKSun Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Detroit
@
Carolina
OUR PICKCarolina +4.5
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Carolina more than the betting line does; home field for Carolina.
- Total pick
- Under 52.5 · L
Input quality (not a win chance)72
Mon Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Atlanta
@
New Orleans
OUR PICKUnder 48.5
TOTAL
Our scoring read for this matchup is below the betting total.
- Out
- Atlanta: S. Norton (OT), A. Thompson (DT), D. Malone (LB), T. Sermon (RB), B. Collins (WR), C. Williams (OL), D. Hand (DT), J. Bertrand (LB), and 1 more · New Orleans: M. Tipton (WR), N. Saldiveri (OT), C. Granderson (DE), A. Jennings (LB), K. Elliss (LB), T. Etienne Jr. (RB), T. Chandler (RB), J. Tyson (WR), and 9 more
TOP PROPS
- Tyler Shough (QB) Over 15.5 rushing yards 64%
- Juwan Johnson (TE) Over 42.5 receiving yards 63%
- Noah Fant (TE) Over 15.5 receiving yards 63%
- Tyler Shough (QB) Over 1.5 passing TDs 60%
- Alvin Kamara (RB) Over 36.5 rushing yards 63%
Input quality (not a win chance)64
WEEK BY WEEK 2026 season, graded against the closing line
| Week | Top picks | All spread picks | Total picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | 3-0-1 | 4-0-1 | 3-6-0 |
| Week 3 | 4-0-0 | 5-1-1 | 2-8-0 |
| Week 2 | 2-2-0 | 2-2-0 | 3-3-0 |
| Week 1 | 2-1-1 | 3-3-1 | 3-7-0 |
RECENT RESULTS our latest graded top picks
| Oct 4 | Detroit @ Carolina | Carolina +4.5 | WIN |
| Oct 4 | Los Angeles (C) @ Seattle | Seattle -7 | PUSH |
| Oct 4 | Arizona @ New York (G) | New York (G) +2.5 | WIN |
| Oct 4 | Dallas @ Houston | Dallas +3 | WIN |
| Sep 28 | Philadelphia @ Chicago | Chicago +3.5 | WIN |
| Sep 27 | Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh +3.5 | WIN |
| Sep 27 | Houston @ Indianapolis | Indianapolis +1.5 | WIN |
| Sep 27 | Seattle @ Washington | Washington +8.5 | WIN |
| Sep 21 | New York (G) @ Los Angeles (R) | New York (G) +6.5 | LOSS |
| Sep 20 | Washington @ Dallas | Dallas -3.5 | WIN |
| Sep 20 | Carolina @ Atlanta | Atlanta +2.5 | LOSS |
| Sep 20 | Green Bay @ New York (J) | New York (J) +3.5 | WIN |
| Sep 13 | Dallas @ New York (G) | New York (G) +3 | WIN |
| Sep 13 | Atlanta @ Pittsburgh | Atlanta +6.5 | LOSS |
| Sep 13 | Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati | Cincinnati -3.5 | WIN |
Our own team ratings, built from player grades, are compared with the betting line, then adjusted for injuries, home field, rest and weather. A pick is made only when our read and the line disagree by a meaningful but not extreme amount. Top picks are the week's four spread picks whose inputs are most complete. Input quality measures how complete and settled the data behind a pick is; it is not a win chance. Picks are graded against the closing line. Prop picks come from our player projections against the posted line, and their percentage is our estimated chance the pick hits.